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Notes from Mike Z earnings call with financial analysts

I listened in on Nortel’s 2Q08 earnings call this morning, led by Nortel CEO Mike Zafirovski and CIO CFO Pavi Binning. You can access their presentations slides and hear a replay of the call here if you are interested.

Below are a few interesting points that I took from the call (not necessarily in order of the conversation on the call).

  • Revenue for the quarter was at $2.6 billion, up 2% year-over-year. For 1H08, Nortel’s revenue is now up 7% YoY.
  • Mike Z and Pavi Binning highlighted several times the continued progress with gross margins and operating margins. In the press release, Mike Z highlights: “We delivered gross margin of 43.1%, the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement, and management operating margin of 4.3%, the eighth consecutive quarter of year-over-year improvement.”
  • The presentation highlighted gross margin improvements in Carrier Networks, Enterprise Solutions, and Global Services.
  • The presentation highlighted “significant improvements in G&A,” driven by cost reductions in IT and finance.
  • Mike Z said that in the second half of 2008, Nortel would be increasing and refocusing sales resources to focus on the growth segments of 40gig and unified communications
  • Mike Z said that: We have invested heavily in Enterprise and MEN, and we are starting to see the trajectory to growth in those areas.
  • A quick mention of an org change was mentioned, as Samih Elhage was announced as the new leader of the Carrier VoIP and Applications business.
  • Carrier Networks: quarterly revenue was down 2% YoY. CDMA revenue down 10%, with GSM/UMTS revenue up 11% YoY. The decrease in CDMA revenues, along with comments during the presentation of a slowdown in U.S. carrier spending were discussed during the call. One analyst asked about Nortel’s CDMA market share, to which Mike Z responded: “…certainly over the last couple of years we have gained [CDMA] market share and we don’t expect to lose that going forward.”
  • Enterprise Solutions: revenues were up 3% YoY. Gross margins increased while management operating margins decreased, reflecting increased marketing and R&D spending in the area. An analyst point out that the enterprise businesses still didn’t have a positive margin, and asked Mike Z how confident he was in this changing in 2H08. Mike Z commented that gross margin in the enterprise business had improved nicely in the quarter, and that Nortel expects enterprise to have a positive OM in the 2nd half.
  • Metro Ethernet: Revenues were up 4% YoY, with gross margins flat and management operating margin up. Several times during the presentation, Mike Z highlighted the growing momentum for Nortel’s 40gig solution. Nortel now has twenty 40gig wins, plus five tier one trials. Mike highlighted that at the last update (the analyst day event) that number was at 14 wins.
  • Global Services: Revenues were up 9%, with higher gross margins and management operating margins. A quick calculation shows that Global Services accounted for just over 20% of Nortel’s total revenues in 2Q08.

  • Mike and Pavi also maintained overall guidance for the full year of 2008.
  • Mike Z: The Microsoft relationship has been a tremendous benefit to us….opening doors.
  • Analyst question: Does Nortel have the right strategy for growth in 2009? Mike Z: We are looking at ~65% of revenues coming from growth markets. We are looking forward to demonstrating the foundation to drive the business in 2009. Headwinds in CDMA will put more of a sense of urgency in driving those changes.

After listening to the call, it seems clear to me that the second half of 2008 is going to be about executing on the growth businesses that Nortel has been putting in place over these last two years. The numbers show that there is definitely more customer momentum in those businesses where we have some differentiation and technology leadership - the next step is turning that into 2H08 results.

Comments

  1. Got a comment from Roese’s blog that I wanted to comment on:

    =====
    How could the prospects for Nortel have changed so dramatically from the presentations made during Analyst Day in June to the earnings announcement this morning? The prospects for profitability seem to have evaporated in a mere 6 weeks. I am a long term investor who is now very concerned and feeling a bit betrayed by current management. I would appreciate a response. Thank you.
    =========

    I think this is an interesting point. On today’s call, Nortel maintained its outlook for 2H08. There was no calling down of expected revenues, etc. Nortel maintained guidance at the analyst conference also (I believe we even issued a press release re-affirming outlook).

    So the outlook goals that Mike and team have communicated have remained consistent. I think there is obviously a change in perception that has happened from the analyst day to today, but the target metrics are still trending upwards — gross margin, operating margin, etc.

  2. Bo,

    Like Lee I am also a long term investor and I have the highest regards for your products, but at the end of the day what really matters is the stock price.

    Needless to say I am very disappointed — I really think the management team needs to start creating shareholder value, or sell the company as per the post on Mark Evan’s Blog…..

    Regards,

    Nick

  3. I am an investor in Nortel, and entrepreneur. I believe that at the end of the day, what really matters to me is Nortel staying in business. That’s where it is there for. And I like what I’ve seen in the past couple years… the turn around, the focus on growth sectors… I strongly believe that the stock will follow in due time with such metrics improving as Mr.Roese pointed out. If you are in business, and dedicated to it, it is first to offer a service. As shareholders, we are those who want to offer the service… we are not the bondholders or preferred stock holders. And I have seen dedication from this management team and the employees of Nortel and have good hopes for this company and its line of products/services.

    Kuddos!

  4. a couple of analysts , were quite clear in raising quite bluntly; SG&A is not coming down, margin expansion has peaked,CDMA is down what do you see in 09. Mike Z had no real answer, . why can’t the SG&A expenses come down; is it because the Canadian Govt. implicitly underwrites Nortel; these executives can continue to get “fat salaries” whilst underperforming.

  5. Burring the truth that Nortel LOST money AGAIN deep down in the presentation is just a slap in the face to shareholders. You can put all the icing on it you want, but the bottom line is earnings per share. That is something Nortel can’t seem to do. The management teem has done a great job of transitioning Nortel to new technologies all the way from twenty a share down to today’s price. Great job Mike Z!!

  6. Lots of spinning by Mike Z but the market has spoken on Nortel’s results and its not good: 61 cents a share (6.10 post split). This is about as low as it was during the really bad days of the Telecom and dot com bubble burst. You can spin all you want but if you don’t deliver the numbers, the market will not buy your stock and your stock price falls.

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