John Roese’s Blog CTO, Nortel

Hyperconnectivity Study – Validating our Thinking

Location: Toronto

After a crazy few weeks of travel, including attending a trade conference in Northern Ireland, meeting UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Northern Ireland First Minister Ian Paisley, and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland Martin McGuinness – and a host of other activities – I am finally back in Canada for a few days.

Today Nortel held a media event in Toronto to discuss a project we initiated a few months ago with industry analyst firm IDC. In essence, we asked IDC to validate our thinking around if and how the hyperconnected world is emerging. The key take-away is that we were in fact correct in asserting that not only are people becoming more connected, but that a new identity of information and communications user has emerged that far exceeds the usage level and complexity of prior generations. That new user is more connected than ever before, and expectations are clearly shifting from “anywhere, anytime” to “everywhere, all the time” communications. Some key conclusions from the study:

  • 16 percent of business users are already hyperconnected: The hyperconnected have a much higher adoption of communication devices and applications than those in other clusters. They are reasonably happy with their work/life balance, even though they use almost all devices and applications for both, and they are willing to communicate with work on vacation, in restaurants, from bed, and even in their place of worship.
  • Asia Pacific is leading the way in Hyperconnectivity: The largest percentage of “hyperconnected” are in Asia Pacific. And, while hyperconnected business users can be found in all countries, they are higher than average in the U.S. and China, and lowest in Canada and the United Arab Emirates.
  • 40 percent of business users will be hyperconnected within a few years: With an aging workforce retiring, younger employees entering the workforce, and a current majority of increasingly connected users, 40 percent of business users may be hyperconnected within a few years.
  • Enterprises will compete for talent: As baby boomers retire, corporations will find themselves increasingly competing for talent. Hyperconnected individuals expect to work in a rich communications environment and consider the newer communications solutions a condition of their employment. They don’t want just anywhere, anytime communications – they demand it “everywhere, all the time.”
  • Latin America has largest percentage of hyperconnected/increasingly connected users: 64 percent of business users in Latin America rank as hyperconnected/increasingly connected, compared to 59 percent in Asia Pacific, 50 percent in Europe, and 44 percent in North America.
  • Phones are more important than wallets and keys: When asked which item people would take if they had to leave the house for 24 hours – and if they could only take one thing with them – more than 38 percent of global respondents chose their mobile phone over their wallet, keys, laptop, and MP3 player. Less than 30 percent chose their wallet first. In Latin America, more than 50 percent chose their mobile phone over any other item. The hyperconnected preferred taking their laptops.
  • Social network adoption is growing in the Enterprise: More than one in three business users use social networks and online communities such as blogs, wikis, and online forums for business communication – with workers in the Caribbean and Latin America leading the world. Personal postings to social networks and online communities are nearly three times as common as business postings.
  • Enterprises are struggling with disparate communications: Nearly one in five respondents found it hard to manage multiple disparate sources of communication. Users in the finance and high-tech segments are the most dissatisfied with the way their companies manage multiple communications sources. More than 25 percent said their corporate communications systems are slow and unreliable.
  • Different industries, different stories: Hyperconnectivity varies by industry, from 9 percent of respondents in health care ranking as hyperconnected compared to 25 percent in high tech and 21 percent in finance industries.
  • Multiple devices are the global norm: 70 percent of respondents connect to the Internet at home with more than one device. In Asia Pacific, that number jumps to 80 percent. Nearly 80 percent of 18 to 34 year olds connect to the Internet at home using more than one device.

What all of this means for our customers and Nortel is that the importance of a Unified Communications strategy and technology will only increase. If the vanguard of users in the hyperconnected world represents 16% of the existing population (and a full 40% are not far behind) then it is critical that CIOs begin to develop core strategies to embrace this connectedness. The means and modes of communications will increase exponentially over the next decade, and that explosion will put huge stress on the networks in place. Inside the enterprise, the challenge will be less about capacity issues and more about a diverse set of communications interfaces and experiences – and the growing expectation of users that all will be coordinated. It will not be acceptable to have diverse address books, presence information, or even identity. It will also be critical that a wide range of collaboration experiences be available broadly, from video to voice to IM to immersive environments. Additionally, the CIO will be unable to tightly link these attributes to a set of well-defined applications but must think about embedding a set of communications functions into whatever application the business user or customer needs to use.

The strategy at Nortel has been to enable that communications integration in a way that the entire applications ecosystem can be empowered with embedded communications services. Imagine that any application that stores information or creates it can seamlessly interact with collaboration and communications tools and services and can do so in a unified way. While we have espoused this belief for some time, the just released study from IDC (http://www.nortel.com/idcstudy) – entitled “The Hyperconnected: Here They Come!” – has validated that a growing and significant portion of the end user base (on a global level) has exactly that same expectation.

It is good to see statistical data that shows we are heading toward the market demand we have anticipated and, as many of you know, the last year has seen double-digit gains of market share from Nortel in the Enterprise market primarily linked to our leadership in Unified Communications. Since the transformed enterprise is a key element of our company strategy, this study and the trends it captures are a good indication that we placed a wise bet on this evolution of the voice market and stand to have both access and opportunity in the market. Take a few minutes to review the study and ask yourself if you see the hyperconnected emerging around you (or even, if you are one of them) and more importantly ask yourself if the majority of the population becomes like those profiled, what will that do to our thinking on how people use communications and networking technology going forward?

I’d be interested in hearing what you have to say, both related to this blog entry and the study itself.

Comments

  1. John,

    Let me get this straight; you paid a company to “validate your thinking” and voila! They validated your thinking! Basically IDC categorized the users and used a weighting system to the questions and answers. (weights not revealed in the methodology). This sounds suspiciously vulnerable to the inter corporate version of group think. Didn’t anyone see the movie “the smartest guys in the room”?

    All of the bullet points are pretty much a no brainier you could get for free by talking to your enterprise customers, carrier customers or general observation. If I were nortel, I would be more interested in why people are not “hyper-connected” and discovering dissonance in user experience and application interactions which would reveal opportunities. Saying “Unified Communications” is a valid concept is like saying using a calculator is better than counting on your fingers and toes, or a Ferrari is better than a Corvette……..ooops!

    My point is, what happened to research without pre-ordained conclusions? This unknown territory is where you sometimes learn something important and unexpected. Often the unexpected turns out to be a competitive advantage.

    I am surprised that items like the availability of access and form factor were not considered in the study as well. This is the reason I often carry two mobile phones - 2G and 3G - flip and candybar/pda.

  2. Hyper-connectivity, the solution to the worlds energy problems? Well, at least L.A!

  3. many - I think your comments are doing a disservice to IDC. Sure Nortel sponsored the study, but IDC is a very well-respected, global analyst firm. That’s one reason we chose them to do the research.

    You ask “what happened to research without pre-ordained conclusions?” I would suggest that the research community would call that a “Hypothesis”…and the point of the research is to confirm your hypothesis.

    Yes - the idea was to “validate” Nortel’s thinking on Hyperconnectivity, but to provide more detail and granularity around “around if and how the hyperconnected world is emerging.”

  4. Bo and John,

    I am at a loss for words. You guys pay to confirm your thinking — but at the end of the day your stock price is a disgrace. I am not sure if you know but your market cap = that of Ciena which has 1/10 your sales. Maybe you should do a study on that!

  5. Bo. Please.

    I mean really, if the “research” is entitled “The Hyperconnected: Here They Come!” and the methodology names the classification “Hyperconnected, Increasingly Connected, Passive Online, and Barebones Users” do you think there might be some bias? Maybe some pre-ordained conclusions?

    IDC is a *business* and when commissioned to gather supporting evidence to an educated guess, will do so. That supporting evidence is not necessarily dignified by the term “research”.

    I repeat; a hypothesis *is not* an educated guess.

    A Hypothesis is an idea which merits further evaluation, not a marketing buzz word. You know (I think) that hypothesis requires more work in order to confirm or disprove it and it importantly enables predictions which if proved true might enable the little hypothesis to someday grow up and be a theory.

    The only way this data can “provide useful detail and granularity around if and how the hyperconnected world is emerging” is to repeat the same “study” several times to provide more than one data point. At that point the “research” will be marginally less suspect.

    It would also be useful to have a little more detail around the methodology rather than just the subjects and their locations as is customary in research. Yes, even as a marketeer, you have to show your work :) .

  6. Many. +1.

    Bo - this data is weak. Imagine that Nortel were a startup approaching a VC to get funding for a ‘Hyperconnectivity Program’. You wouldn’t even get a meeting. None of the key business factors for the industry or for Nortel are included. Go away and come back when you can talk about more than just high level segment profiles. As I’ve stated before, let’s hear the Nortel/IDC view on size of market, timing of market, and potential Nortel share. Without that data, all this posting is just marketing jibber jabber that any intelligent reader will immediately discard.

  7. It’s not that hard to understand that “Hyperconnectivity” is a trend directly related to demographics and how different people/organizations use different types of technology. “Hyperconnectivity” is NOT a product or a solution, however, there are numerous technologies, products and solutions that can address the “Hyperconnectivity” (demographic) trend.

    A very basic view of this suggests that 40Gig Optical, LTE/WiMAX and Unified Communications can all be contributing offers as the “Hyperconnectivity” trend continues to grow.

  8. Enjoying the “nail-on-the-head” comments.

  9. IW

    I agree. Basic indeed. My point is that noone needs IDC to tell us basic information.

    40 (or better 100) Gig optical will relieve pressure in the network without adding costly outside plant infrastructure. Nortel as it first, but others will be along shortly.

    LTE/WiMax will allow mobile access speeds that compete favorably with fixed access. Everyone is working on this too. Nortel is not a leader on the product side.

    Unified Communications (I prefer unified applications) is something that is ill defined and has (IMO) terrific opportunity and potential. Hopefully someone will break the MS monopoly. Just the movement of “policy, billing and charging” from the back office to an integral part of applications processing is huge. Again, I see Nortel missing the opportunity to leverage expertise that I know they have (or at least had at one time). Please don’t point to the MS alliance unless you can point to a specific Nortel product. Another strength I see is that nortel can operate in both the legacy and the NextGen networks and allow evolution (to a degree) rather than revolution. Why is it Nortel does not advertise that?

    Concerns about power, footprint, manageability, upgradeability……adnausium, will always be superceded by getting product to market, but the pressure is on to improve ever more rapidly. Besides using less power, where is Nortel on the other points? It seems to me that a lot of Nortel installed base is getting ripped and replaced by equipment that uses less power and footprint.

    All of these items are not lost on vendors, network operators or even mildly savvy end users. Which leaves me with the question; what is nortel specifically doing about it? Why does Nortel stand out amongst the pack?

  10. Hyperconnectivity seems reasonable. Real question is: what is Nortel doing to deliver products or services to improve Hyper…? I see Nortel wrapping up old products in HyperC, like WIMAX, Microsquish, etc., but thats just marketing.

  11. Iam interesting with your post, I am Indonesian, in my country has 9 GSM & CDMA Company, and 4 Company already support 3G (HSDPA or WCDMA) with national wide services, me and most workers using Internet access over 3G with minimum 2 Mbps and sometimes get 7.2Mbps, some provider promise upgrade their network to 4G at next 2 years and available 40Mbps access. Content and UC now is most wanted applications and I am predict Hyperconnectivity is reasoneable to provide more Services to SP such as UC and Web 2.0 based

  12. Why is Canada so dismally low in the hyperconnected/increasingly connected. The US and China are above averages.

    With the law of averages, the point made here is North America in general is seemingly lagging.

    Does anyone know what are the mechanics that seem to make Canada amongst the lowest hyperconencted/increasing connected.

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