Enterprise Technology By Phil Edholm

Older: Hyperconnected….Not
Newer: Nortel UC Vision

The UC Market Transformation

By Phil September 10, 2008 11:22 pm

In a previous post I talked about the paths to UC; collaboration and business.  In this post I will attempt to define the market opportunity that is emerging in the UC space.Using market prediction data from companies such as IDC and Gartner, Nortel has developed a market model of the transition to UC.  This model incorporates both the UC for Collaboration and Business factors in different ways.  UC for Collaboration is assumed to be a segment that includes existing spending in communications (VoIP, Contact Center, IVR, Messaging, Conferencing, etc.), where these products are bought as part of a UC solution versus a voice/telephony solution.  In the attached 2008 and 2012 market map, it can be seen that in 2008 the UC market is relatively small at about 10% of the total.  waterfall-for-uc.gifHowever, this grows to almost 70% of the communications spend in 2012, as the UC integration extends to over 30% of the PC desktops worldwide.  

The UC for Business market is based on the WebServices and SOA enables applications integrating into communications.  In 2008, only 17% of applications have this capability, but that grows to 60% in 2012.  Assuming 3% of software revenue is spent on communications integration, the UC for Business market is $6.6B in 2012.  Much as the integration of information/applications with business process created new segments in the 90s, this transformation will create new segments going forward.  Also, some data network decisions will be based on the UC transformation, bringing the total market to over $25B by 2012.Post 2012, the UC for Business paradigm continues to drive the market. 

projection-for-uc.gif

The UC for Collaboration and traditional comms flattens, but the need for communication integration will drive a strong market growth as shown into 2016.  In fact, the projection of a $60B new market has been confirmed by analysts from major industry tracking firms.

Categories: SOA, Unified Communications, Multimedia, Trends Trackbacks (0)

Tags: No Tags

Comments

  1. Good insight Phil

    Is there a clear and concise strategy that Nortel has planned to hopefully capture a sizable portion of this market?

    thanks

    September 12th, 2008 at 10:20 am by Bill Stock

  2. Phil,

    Who verified these numbers from Gartner? What did Gartner base them on? How do they define UC? Based on previous Gartner predictions, and the current market conditions I am highly suspicious of these numbers. In fact, a whole lot of your “early adopters” in the financial world just lost their jobs.

    What is the difference between “modeled” and “Projected”

    September 21st, 2008 at 2:44 pm by many

  3. The numbers were a combination of Gartner, IDC, and some others. We put together the view based on a commonized Nortel view of the market. I reviewed the overall result with Bob Hafner of Gartner in June. He felt they were at least accurate if not conservative.

    Your comment about the economy is a good one. The appetite for spending today is down dramatically and investments that are for new activities are under increasing scrutiny. While this will have a short term impact, the long term trend will continue. The question is will the entire line be pushed back or will the slope be steeper on a later starting line?

    September 29th, 2008 at 12:31 pm by Phil

Leave a Reply